Temperature is warmer during shorter cycles. It's an inverse affect.
Cycle 23 wich has just finished is something like 13 years long. Cycle
24 is off to a very slow start and may be even longer.
So why should planets be warming now rather than cooling? Especially
Mars, which has no detected bodies of water and icecaps being of CO2 and
mere millimeters thick? Mars should have surface temperature following
4th root of solar output closely!
(Mars does indeed have barely enough atmosphere to have dust storms, and
a positive feedback mechanism for amount of dust storm activity and
related temperature trends. Deviation from previous long term average
tends to reinforce itself. That is why Mars gets into its own warming and
cooling trends lasting a few Martian years, and those are almost twice as
long as Earth years.)
Meanwhile, Hansen did acknowledge the solar cycle and did say that solar
dimming accompanied by weakening of sunspot cycles in the first 3 decades
of this century would offset roughly 7 years of CO2 increase (at recent
rate of CO2 increase).
Also, I checked more into the Multidecadal Oscillation (60-65 year
period). It turns out to be called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO) and its main index is some composite of North Atlantic sea surface
temperature. It is known to have some positive correlation with global
surface temperature, so the index is for that whatever composite North
Atlantic temperature being with respect to global surface temperature.
Meanwhile, I do see increased El Nino activity (which warms the surface
and lower troposphere) when AMO is in its upswing (most recently the 1983
to 1998 period). It appears to me that central and eastern USA tend to
have more heatwave activity when AMO is "upswinging while high" (1931-1936
and 1988-1995). I do see general trend of global temperature having
positive correlation with AMO and slightly leading AMO (with lead likely
due to El Nino uptick that I suspect is related somehow).
AMO being high probably tends to some extent to make the Arctic warmer
at the expense of the Antarctic. From a few years ago to a decade or two
from now, expect Arctic sea ice to run low even in comparison to whatever
would be typical for current global temperature and current Antarctic sea
ice level.
With both weakening of the sunspot cycle and effect of AMO (or cyclic El
Nino uptick that has had correlation in the past century) on global
temperature likely to favor cooling until maybe 2030 or 2035 or so, I
consider it a serious warning sign if the globe manages to warm at all
from mid-first-decade-of-21st-century to then.
- Don Klipstein (
[email protected])
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